Archive for January, 2010

What Road will Berkshire Real Estate take?

I recently spent a sunny afternoon looking back over 23 years of statistics for the Berkshire Housing Market.  I was seeking some indication of what is in store for the Northern Berkshire Housing Market in 2010.  However, as Yogi Bera once said “predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future.”

That verity aside, I do believe that statistics provide some useful assistance to us as we look ahead, and so does information about the state of the general economy, historical trends, and so forth. Taking all of this in to account, it is my expectation that the level of inventory will remain at higher average levels for some time to come and will take longer to absorb than the past, leading to longer days on the market on average as well.

These changes will not only effect Berkshire real estate, but the industry as a whole.

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The new year promises some changes to the Berkshire real estate market, as well as the market as a whole. So what road will the real estate market take in 2010?

Here are some of our 2010 Berkshire real estate predictions:

1. There will be a greater diversity of buyer types.  This ranges from seniors with little or no interest in high technology to the middle range of empty nesters who have a mixed level of technological interest and expect instant response to their text messaged inquiries.
2. Top Realtors® will need to be on the leading edge of technological advances–such as Facebook, Twitter, and mobile applications–in order to provide accurate, meaningful, and advanced services and results to their clients.
3. Part time practitioners will struggle to keep up; full time professionals will continue to expand their market share. For clients seeking superior results, the full time professional will be the preferred and necessary option although “friends” and “relatives” of part timers will always account for some business, sometimes to their client’s disadvantage however.
4. That being said, requirements by law and the costs to remain in the business will steadily increase which in some cases will cut out the weaker and less dedicated licensees
5. The stock market will advance, real estate values will stabilize and consumer confidence will improve modestly. Job growth will be slow and as such will continue to be a dampening weight on any potential rebound.
6. Downsizing, rightsizing, and greening will be significant trends and have an impact on value
7. There will be more single and alternative household formations as compared to traditional families.
8. Condominium sales will remain relatively strong for the obvious advantages to today’s busy lifestyles and shrinking family sizes. There is a substantial oversupply of condo conversions of former apartments and these will not fare so well.
9. Along with the aging of the baby boomer population, more growth in the sunbelt and even overseas as Americans discover attractive and less expensive foreign alternatives such as Central America.
10. No new housing price bubbles in sight. Baby boomers selling one of their two homes, relocations out of the area,  job losses, shrinking populations in the Berkshires: these trends as well as the losses suffered by speculators and get rich quick flippers, will all help to keep prices at moderate levels.
11. First time and repeat buyer tax incentive programs will attract qualified buyers and motivate them to take action before these programs expire thus helping to stimulate the market in important but still modest ways.
12. Many sellers accept diminished expectations and in some cases where they purchased during the boom, even losses.

What are your real estate predictions for 2010? We’d love to hear them.